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Government Money Printing Makes Inflation (Not Recession) Greatest Risk For Investors | Kevin Muir

Forward Guidance
189K subscribers
48K views 1 year ago Forward Guidance
Kevin Muir, veteran trader and publisher of The Macro Tourist newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers with his thoughts on the U.S. fiscal deficit, the bond market, and buy-write ETFs. Muir argues that persistently stimulative fiscal policy will keep nominal demand and growth high in the U.S., and that over the next decade, inflation surprises will be consistently to the upside. Muir explains why he is bullish on inflation breakevens and Japanese equities, and shares why he is excited about Harley Bassman’s new mortgage ETF. Filmed on January 9, 2024. Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. __ Follow Kevin Muir on Twitter   / kevinmuir   Kevin Muir’s newsletter, The Macro Tourist https://themacrotourist.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter   / jackfarley96   Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter   / forwardguidance   F …...more
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Introduction

0:00

U.S. Fiscal Deficits Are Fueling A Boom

0:48

Are Higher Interest Rates Actually Stimulative To The Economy?

8:54

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)

10:29

Thought Experiment With Bank of Japan

15:11

Why Kevin Likes The Japanese Stock Market

20:53

Bond Market and Fed Policy

24:48

Rates Market Is Overzealous In Pricing In Fed Cuts

33:24

Floor vs. Corridor System

34:10

Kevin's 2024 Economic Outlook

42:08

Using Options To Identify True Market-Assigned Probabilities In The STIR Market

51:14

Kevin's Favorite Trade: Long Inflation Breakevens

57:14

Interest Rate Vol Is Cheap (And Harley Bassman's New Mortgage ETF)

1:07:36

Kevin's Thoughts On Buy-Write ETFs

1:11:04
Government Money Printing Makes Inflation (Not Recession) Greatest Risk For Investors | Kevin Muir
943Likes
48,359Views
2024Jan 14
Kevin Muir, veteran trader and publisher of The Macro Tourist newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers with his thoughts on the U.S. fiscal deficit, the bond market, and buy-write ETFs. Muir argues that persistently stimulative fiscal policy will keep nominal demand and growth high in the U.S., and that over the next decade, inflation surprises will be consistently to the upside. Muir explains why he is bullish on inflation breakevens and Japanese equities, and shares why he is excited about Harley Bassman’s new mortgage ETF. Filmed on January 9, 2024. Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. __ Follow Kevin Muir on Twitter   / kevinmuir   Kevin Muir’s newsletter, The Macro Tourist https://themacrotourist.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter   / jackfarley96   Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter   / forwardguidance   Follow Blockworks on Twitter   / blockworks_   __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-a... -- Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 00:48 U.S. Fiscal Deficits Are Fueling A Boom 08:54 Are Higher Interest Rates Actually Stimulative To The Economy? 10:29 Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) 15:11 Thought Experiment With Bank of Japan 20:53 Why Kevin Likes The Japanese Stock Market 24:48 Bond Market and Fed Policy 33:24 Rates Market Is Overzealous In Pricing In Fed Cuts 34:10 Floor vs. Corridor System 42:08 Kevin's 2024 Economic Outlook 51:14 Using Options To Identify True Market-Assigned Probabilities In The STIR Market 57:14 Kevin's Favorite Trade: Long Inflation Breakevens 01:07:36 Interest Rate Vol Is Cheap (And Harley Bassman's New Mortgage ETF) 01:11:04 Kevin's Thoughts On Buy-Write ETFs -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Forward Guidance
Forward Guidance

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Forward Guidance

189K subscribers